Chinese employers’ hiring confidence declines for the fifth consecutive quarter but still positive in Q1 2012: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

2011-12-13

Under embargo to 13 December 2011 (05:01 GMT)
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MANPOWERGROUP CHINA MEDIA RELEASE
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- Fueled by the Spring Festival, Lantern Festival and Valentine’s Day celebrations, employers in Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors report positive hiring intentions
- Employers in Beijing report the strongest regional hiring pace for 1Q
- Employers in India, Brazil, Taiwan, Panama and Turkey report the strongest first-quarter hiring plans globally.

13 December 2011 [Shanghai, China]
The first quarter 2012 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey report released by ManpowerGroup, the world leader in innovative workforce solutions, reveals that government measures to cool the economy combined with uncertainty associated with European debt issues is having an impact on employer hiring intentions. China’s Net Employment Outlook of +17% (Seasonally Adjusted3), represents a slight decline in employer confidence quarter-over-quarter. But when compared year-over-year, the Net Employment Outlook declines by a steep margin of 20 percentage points — the weakest employer hiring forecast in two years. Despite the decline in employer hiring confidence, the survey reveals that one out of every five Chinese employers plan to add to their workforces in the January through March time frame.

ManpowerGroup interviewed nearly 65,000 employers around the globe, including 4,259 employers in mainland China, to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their organizations between January and March 2012.  In Q1 2012, 20 percent of Chinese employers expect to increase their workforces, while three percent plan to decrease the number of employees on staff.

“The Euro debt issue and the uncertainty of the global economy is having an impact on the Chinese labor market. The ongoing financial uncertainty in Europe will certainly slow down Chinese exports as Europe is China’s largest export market. As a result, employer hiring plans are at their weakest level since the first quarter of 2010: China’s Net Employment Outlook has steadily declined for five consecutive quarters. Recovery of employer confidence may hinge on efforts in the Euro zone to re-establish stability,” said Danny Yuan, Managing Director for ManpowerGroup China. “Although employer hiring intentions continue to fall, talent mismatches remain a serious concern for employers, and candidates with relevant in-demand skills should still find abundant employment opportunities.”

Hiring intentions fall in each of the six industry sectors quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year; Outlooks in Manufacturing and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors are strongest

Compared to last quarter and the same quarter last year, hiring intentions fall in each of the six industry sectors but still remain positive. Opportunities for job seekers are expected to be strongest in the Manufacturing sector with a Net Employment Outlook of +18%. Notable, fueled by the Spring Festival, Lantern Festival and Valentine's Day celebrations, upbeat hiring plans are reported by the employers in Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors with a Net Employment Outlook of +17%. The Euro debt issue may also be behind weaker employer hiring intentions in both the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector and Mining & Construction sector, with a Net Employment Outlook of +14% and +9%, respectively. For the second consecutive quarter, the least optimistic hiring intentions are reported by employers in the Mining & Construction industry sector. 
 
Source: ManpowerGroup
Yuan said: “Although Manufacturing sector employers report the most positive hiring intentions for the quarter ahead, employers in this sector face a double pressure from higher costs associated with labor and industrial upgrading. If the companies do not optimize their human resource strategies in a more timely manner, and take advantage of more flexible workforce policies, more challenges will arise. ”

Strongest hiring pace among the 9 regions and cities reported by the employers in Beijing

In Q1 2012, the 16 cities that were individually surveyed are consolidated into nine regions and cities. Employers in five cities, including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu, will continue to participate in the survey; the remaining cities were combined into four regions including the East, South, North and the Central & West, and employer forecasts in these combined regions are reported for the first time this quarter.

Employers across all 9 regions and cities surveyed anticipate positive hiring activity in Q1 2012. Year-over-year, Outlooks in each of the nine regions and cities decline by varying degrees. Based on unadjusted data, employers in Beijing (+23%) report the most optimistic hiring intentions among the regions surveyed with the Outlook improving 2 percentage points quarter over quarter.
 
Source: ManpowerGroup

Globally, strongest hiring intentions reported in Brazil, Taiwan, India, Panama and Turkey

Globally, employers in India, Brazil, Taiwan, Panama and Turkey report the strongest first-quarter hiring plans. Meanwhile, employers in Greece, Hungary and Italy report the weakest Net Employment Outlooks.  Hiring optimism weakens from three months ago in 30 countries and territories and softens in 23 countries and territories compared to this time last year.

Regionally, employers throughout Asia Pacific continue to report positive Net Employment Outlooks. Job seekers in India are likely to benefit from the most vigorous hiring pace reported among the eight countries and territories in the region, with aggressive recruitment of IT talent expected to heat up competition for talent in an already booming labor market. However, compared to last year at this time, hiring plans soften in six countries and territories, including China’s notable drop in employer confidence. Hiring intentions among Japanese employers are the least robust in the region, despite slight improvements in the Net Employment Outlook from the previous quarter and 12 months ago.

Hiring plans remain positive in all 10 countries ManpowerGroup surveys in the Americas. Labor markets are expected to improve or remain relatively stable in six of 10 countries in a quarter-over-quarter comparison. The year-over-year comparison is split, with Net Employment Outlooks strengthening in five countries and weakening in five. Regional hiring expectations are strongest in Brazil and weakest in the United States. where employers, nonetheless, expect hiring activity to slightly improve in the next three months.

In the EMEA region, hiring trends remain mixed with employers reporting positive hiring intentions in 13 of the 23 countries surveyed. Individual Outlooks decline or remain stable in 18 of 21 countries from three months ago and weaken in 12 where year-over-year comparisons are possible.  Regional hiring plans are strongest in Turkey, Israel, Germany, Norway and Sweden, and weakest in Greece as well as Hungary, where employers expect to put the brakes on hiring in the next three months.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is available free of charge to the public through http://cn.manpowergroup.com/meos.html. The next ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 13 March 2012 to report hiring expectations for the second quarter of 2012.

Note To Editor
1. From Q1 2012, China the previous 16 cities surveyed are collected into 9 regions and cities, the 5 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu; 4 regions including North, South, East and Central & West, the North region including Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian and Chengdu, the South region including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen and Changsha; the East region including Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou; the Central & West region including Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi’an and Wuhan.
2. The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity less the percentage of employers who expect to reduce their workforces.
3. Seasonally adjusted data is a statistical process that allows us to present the survey data without the effect of fluctuations that normally occur through the course of the year, as a result of seasonal events such as changes in weather, public holidays, etc. Removal of the seasonal effect gives us the ability to observe the current labor market trends more meaningfully. All industry sector data reported above is seasonally adjusted. Regional and city data has not been adjusted to account for seasonal variation.

Full survey results for each of the 41 countries and territories included in this quarter’s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found in the ManpowerGroup Press Room at
http://www.manpowergroup.com/press/meos.cfm. In addition, all tables and graphs from the full report are available to be downloaded for use in publication or broadcast from the ManpowerGroup Web site at
http://www.manpowergroup.com/press/meos_landing.cfm

About the Survey
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. The Survey has been running for nearly 50 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with nearly 65,000 public and private employers worldwide and is considered a highly respected economic indicator. 

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is currently available for 41 countries and territories. The program began in the United States and Canada in 1962, and the United Kingdom was added in 1966. Mexico and Ireland launched the survey in 2002, and 13 additional countries were added to the program in 2003. New Zealand joined the program in 2004, China, India, Switzerland and Taiwan were added in 2005, and Argentina, Peru, Costa Rica and South Africa joined in 2006. Colombia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Romania joined in 2008 and Hungary and Brazil were added in 2009. Panama was added in 2010. Bulgaria, Slovenia and Turkey joined in the first quarter in 2011, Israel and Slovakia joined the survey in the fourth quarter in 2011. For more information, visit the ManpowerGroup. Web site at www.manpowergroup.com and enter the Research Center.

About ManpowerGroup China

ManpowerGroup™, the world leader in innovative workforce solutions, first entered mainland China market in 1994. We offer a wide array of workforce solutions and services.

As the leader in professional resourcing and project based workforce solutions in mainland China, we provide middle management to C-suite executive search & selection (headhunting) and professional solutions through Experis™ brand. We serve more than 3,500 clients comprising of foreign based multinationals and local companies, and have over 500,000 middle-to-senior candidates in our database.

As one of the largest staffing service providers in Mainland China, Manpower®, a working brand of ManpowerGroup, offers services including contingency staffing, payroll, outsourcing, talent cultivating, workforce solutions and government solutions.We have over 120,000 associates and a self-owned network of 35 cities, and the services are extended to 100+ cities through cooperation and alliance.

Besides, we provide talent and career management workforce solutions through Right Management® brand, the global leader in talent and career management consulting.

ManpowerGroup China, as a socially responsible organization, took the ownership to build and operate Manpower Ningqiang Elementary School in China Wenchuan quake hit region.

ManpowerGroup China: www.cn.manpowergroup.com
Experis China: www.experis.com.cn 
Right Management China: www.cn.right.com

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